It is, offcourse, a bit annoying that i started my collection as late as i did. I guess the only real chance you have to make a bargain is at the few remaining records stores or at big record fairs. Unfortunately i don’t have the time to run around scouting these stores several times a week so i’m pretty much forced to use ebay and other similar and well known sites. They chance to make a real bargain here is if not non-existant at least very slim. Even though ebay is extremely convenient it’s still sad in a way that the hunt and quest for that rare find is just a few clicks away. But i guess it’s just to go with the flow. If nothing else it’s positive that you can easily get the basis of a collection quick and easy without it costing you a fortune.
I already know that there are more than a couple of covers that i most likely will never get a hold of. I did however get curious about the market for these and how the prices are moving. When should you have gotten on the wagon in order to have had a shot at adding some real gems to your collection?
Popsike is a fun site that keeps a database on all records sold online for more than $25. Most of these are sold on ebay offcourse but i think it logs other sites and sales also.
I’ve put together a few graphs showing the price development for some fo the most rare covers. The data for almost all of them, with perhaps the exception of Cool Gabriels, is not enough to come to any major conclusions but it does however appear that the trends at least are not negative for me personally. But it’s still going to cost me a small fortune if i would decide to try and get them all. And offcourse i should have started collecting many, many years ago.
One might guess that most of these rare and somewhat unknown covers would have had the peak sometime after Paul Marechal’s book was published in 2008. But that’s not really the case, for example Cool gabriels, The Nation’s Nightmare and Latin Rhythms by the Boston Pops all have their peaks during 2011. Albeit there’s not a huge amount of logged auctions in the years 2008-2011 i still find it strange that there’s such an obvious peak during 2011. What happened during 2011? Or maybe it’s just that it took a few years for everyone to catch on.
Mendelssohn is the one that really stands out. From it’s discovery up until today it’s been a massive race to the bottom. Today i might actually have a shot at finding an affordable copy. I missed to good oportunities not to long ago. If this development is due to more and more copies turning up or if it’s due to hesitation and doubts about the authenticity i’m not sure of. The most stable covers are probably The Nation’s Nightmare and Ratfab with both consistently selling for high and even prices.
These graphs aren’t any aboslute truth though since i haven’t made condition a factor, but they should give anyone interested a general idea about the current market. I’m hoping to add the condition factor later on though when i find the time. All prices are i USD except a few marked in yellow which were sold in euros. I’m also planning to add more statistics like this as we go along… Oh, and just click the images to get “the bigger picture”.